Friday, November 30, 2012

Forever Alone Supervillain?

I recently read an article by Kevin Kelly discussing the impossibility of a Hollywood-style lone supervillain killing large numbers of people on his own, arguing that the power of an individual to kill has not increased over time. Even large-scale acts of terrorism depend on teams, not to mention entire networks of support personnel.

Yet this, or any analysis that seeks to predict the future based on current knowledge, cannot help but overlook the possibility of Black Swans. The largest event to date is no guide to even larger events that could occur but have yet to. So is there a fundamental obstacle to mass killing by an individual, or are we less safe than we (or at least Kelly) think we are?

The article offers two main reasons why this should be so, which are that killing large numbers of people is a complex task, and that social resistance hinders recruitment of resources. Which got my inner evil genius wondering if there were ways to bypass these difficulties.